Hey guys.
The Detroit Pistons are my team. Sure, I enjoy any NBA game that’s on, but if the Pistons are on TV, you can bet I’m probably watching them. However, I’ve only been watching the Pistons on a regular basis since the 2005-2006 season. And that’s too bad since I missed out on their 2004 championship run and their return to the NBA Finals in 2005. But I’ve been there for at least 90% of the time for every game for the past three years. It’s been great going to Pistons games and watching them have such success for all this time. It’s been a great ride and looking back I didn’t realize how lucky I had it.
The Pistons won 64, 53, and 59 games respectively during that span, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals all three years. That’s where the wheels fell off the wagon, as the Pistons have been eliminated in 6 games each year, despite having home court advantage in two of them. Now if the Pistons had done what they were supposed to do, they could have won the title in 2006 and 2007. Okay, so maybe they wouldn’t have beaten the Dallas Mavericks (2006) or San Antonio Spurs (2007), but I think they would have defeated at least one of them. As for the 2007 playoffs, if LeBron James doesn’t go off for 48 points in a classic Game 5 (in a tied series), then the Pistons probably win that series, advancing to the Finals. Regarding the 2008 season, if the Boston Celtics don’t acquire Kevin Garnett and do a complete turnaround (the greatest in NBA history), then the Pistons have the best record in the NBA and most likely advance to the Finals. And who wouldn’t have liked the Pistons chances against the L.A. Lakers in that series (Pistons would have had home court advantage)?
For whatever reason, the Detroit Pistons haven’t been able to make it back to the NBA Finals the past few years. Some say it was because the starters were too exhausted from the regular season (2006), that Rasheed Wallace was injured (2007), or that Chauncey Billups was injured (2008). Still others say that it was because Ben Wallace left in the summer of 2006 and I’m sure that if the Pistons lose this spring others will say it was because of the trade that sent Chauncey Billups to Denver for Allen Iverson.
Now a lot of teams would be very happy to even make the playoffs (Oklahoma City Thunder, Charlotte Bobcats, and Minnesota Timberwolves). And most teams would be ecstatic to make it to the second round (Denver Nuggets, Washington Wizards, and Houston Rockets), but here in Detroit the only thing we care about is championships. If the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Central Division this season (which look more and more certain with each passing day) I won’t be surprised when they raise a banner proclaiming that accomplishment on April 16, 2009 (the day after the regular season ends). The Pistons have won it four straight years, but it doesn’t mean anything to them at this point.
Having said all that, this season is the first one for the Pistons that really scares me. In the past you could count on the on the Pistons winning 50+ games in the regular season, winning their division, earning the #1 or #2 seed in the playoffs, and advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. It was guaranteed. But now all that certainty is gone. I really don’t know what’s going to happen. The Pistons might even miss the playoffs completely. Now that’s probably not going to happen. ESPN’s NBA Hollinger Playoff Odds gives the Pistons a 77.9% chance of making the playoffs (4th best in the conference). But I don’t know if they‘re going to even make it to the conference finals, let alone the finals. Hollinger’s Playoff Odds only gives the Pistons a 0% chance of earning the #1 seed, a 0.8% chance of making it to the finals, and a 0.1 chance of winning the championship. It gives the Pistons a better chance of winning the draft lottery (0.3%) than winning the title (all these stats current as of 12/7/08). Just because Hollinger’s computer says these things doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to happen. The media has been discounting the Pistons every year I’ve been watching them and lo and behold they still win 50 games and make it to the conference finals every season.
I don’t know if the Pistons were going to win it all this season with Chauncey Billups at the helm. Billups was my favorite Piston and a severally underrated player for years, but it’s clear he’s on the decline. Maybe the Pistons just needed a change for change’s sake. Maybe they were getting too complacent, having played for so many years together. Billups, Rip Hamilton, Tayshaun Prince, and Rasheed Wallace have played over 400 games together, the second most in NBA history. They weren’t going to play together forever. And I think Pistons General Manager Joe Dumars has finally come to the realization that you need superstars to win a title. The Pistons have been burned by superstars in the playoffs recently. First it was Dwyane Wade and Shaquille O’Neal in 2006, then LeBron James in 2007, and then Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce in 2008. Simply put, a superstar can take over a game in the playoffs. That’s what Dumars is hoping Iverson can do this spring.
Check out Part II on Friday.
8 comments:
Eddie Curry and Jared Jeffries will be long gone from the Knicks by the summer of 2010. The Knicks may yet extend Nate Robinson and/or David Lee. But yeah, LeBron would not be joining a real team if he chooses to sign with the Knicks in 2010. The team will be assembled for him at that time.
The Pistons have absolutely no chance to sign LeBron. What could they offer him that Cleveland could not? I doubt they'd be able to get Boozer, either. He'll either stick with Utah or go to Miami.
I can't believe you say Billups was on the decline. Does he look like he's declining in Denver?
Dumars traded Billups because teams wanted Billups. He would have been much better off trading Hamilton, but who'd want him? Giving away Billups was the only way he could clear up any cap space. It had nothing to do with Billups being on the decline.
New Orleans would kill for Hamilton, in the summer I even heard a few hornets fans say they'd give up West for him to see a Paul-Hamilton backcourt. Any quality point guard would thrive with the addition of Rip, Deron Williams and Nash to name a few. It wasn't nobody wanted him, Dumars just couldn't get enough in return for our primary offensive weapon.
John:
Jeffries will probably be gone by 2010. As for Curry, he still has $31.4 million on his current contract (including this season) that runs through 2010-11. That’s not a terrible contract, but it’s still going to be difficult to move. Although, if the Knicks can move Zach Randolph ($48 million over 3 years), then they can move Curry. And you’re correct about Robinson and Lee. I expect N.Y. to extend Lee as he’s been playing great basketball this season (14 ppg and 10 rpg), but I’m not so sure about Robinson. But my earlier point still stands that LeBron James, if he goes to the Knicks, won’t be coming to an established team in N.Y. compared to Detroit.
The Pistons do have a chance to sign James. Like I said, it’s not realistic; I can see the Pistons going after Bosh though. But it bears mentioning that Rip Hamilton was just rewarded with a contract extension and that Rip and James have the same agent. However, as of this point I see James staying in Cleveland. The Cavs will also have a lot of cap space, maybe enough to bring in another big free agent like Bosh. They also are the only ones who can offer James a 6 year contract worth about $130 million, although that won’t be the deciding factor.
Several teams would want Hamilton. He’s a shooting guard who averages 18 ppg, 3 rpg, 4 apg, 1 spg, shoots 46% from the field, 34% on three pointers, and 86% from the free throw line. Not to mention he has boundless energy and he’s a winner. What’s not to like? Utah would love to have Rip, as they’ve been searching for a good two guard for forever it seems. Other teams like Dallas, New Jersey, Washington, Indiana, Denver, and Orlando would love to have Hamilton.
I don’t agree that the only way to clear cap space was to trade Billups. The Pistons could have not decided to trade extend Hamilton, who will be making something like $10-11 million in 2010-2011. And yes, Billups has looked great in Denver. Remember that Denver plays at a faster pace than Detroit does though. Also realize that Billups is still not shooting that well from the field. Other than that Billups is performing basically the same as he did in Detroit. And I’m sure a change in scenery was good for him. But he has not performed well at all in the playoffs the last three years. And this Billups is not the same one from four years ago, regardless of what the stats say.
JoeBasketball:
Aren’t you the same guy on the Basketbawful comments?
Anyways, I agree that most teams would want Rip, especially Utah. But point guards are always more valued than shooting guards, hence the trade.
billups might be somewhat on the decline, but so is iverson. as much as i like ai he has demonstrated that he can not prosper as not only a point guard but as anything but the featured player of any offense. he may be a better scorer, but billups is a good scorer and a far better defender and decision maker. i'm sick of the whole predictable piston argument. it was flip's offensive schemes that made them predictable, and turned them into a jump shooting team. before that they were lauded for their unpredictability "you have to pick your poison" would often be the comment made. the lack of bench playing time(hence the late series break downs from exhaustion and injuries) has killed us in every playoffs since we won it all (with a total team effort mind you). now you've said before that the bench is for regular season so the starters make the playoff push, but that philosophy has not won us any of the three titles. the teams that beat us did it with a complete team effort, i.e. perkins, davis, posey, powe,haslem,george,mourning,referees,gibson, flopman varejao,pavlovic, bowins,horry,ginobli,mohamed all bench players that played major minutes and rolls off the bench beating detroit in the playoffs.
if i was joe d while everyone was making a big push for lebron and wade, i'd go straight for bosh or boozer. the pistons need help in the paint offensive and defensive given rasheed's distaste for the painted area. resign iverson, and sheed, then trade rip and a future 1rst rounder in a bid to land lebron, or a 1rst round pick from a lottery team like say charlotte, oklahoma, new york, golden state, or minnasota if i had it my way. i say rip because he seems the least happy about billups' departure, and seems almost unwilling to mesh with iverson. that would of course allow allen to go back to his natural position and stuckey to start at point. will bynum and arron afflalo are more than adequate back ups at the 1 and 2, and gives us a front court to be reckoned with.
Anonymous:
Iverson is definitely on the decline. However, critics have claimed he’s been slowing down for years and yet he still drops 20+ ppg and 6 asp every year (except for this one with the Pistons). The thing is that the Pistons won’t have to pay Iverson while he’s declining as they would have with Billups since AI’s contract is over after this season. And I agree that Iverson is a better scorer. Actually AI is a great scorer (he is 3rd all time in PPG). But this system in Detroit was geared toward Billups, so it’s going to take time for AI to adjust. Here’s a better question: do the Pistons let AI be AI, or do they make him fit in the current system?
Every team to some extent is a jump shooting team. But yes, the Pistons got predictable come playoff time. That was part of the reason the Iverson trade was appealing, as he’s about as unpredictable as they come when it comes to offense.
The exhaustion of the starters is true when it comes to the 2006 playoffs. I wouldn’t say that was the reason they lost the 2007 ECFs, when LeBron went off for 48 points in Game 5, or the 2008 ECFs (when the Pistons starters had played short minutes in the regular season.). The 2007 ECfs were more about defense and getting the ball out of LeBron’s hands, both of which the Pistons failed to do. As for last season, I don’t think any bench player really burned the Pistons like the two that I mention later. That was more about Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. James Posey had a couple of good games in that series, but KG really outplayed Rasheed.
I’m not saying that the bench should be played an obscene amount, but they should be played. But in the playoffs most teams go to a 7 or 8 man rotation. As for Iverson, I really think he needs to play with the bench. He’d be so effective there. Take the game last night for example. Since Stuckey and Rip were already in the game there were about 3-4 straight possessions that AI didn’t even touch the ball. Let’s face it: AI is a shooting guard. So starting him and Rip together just doesn’t make sense. Move AI to the bench and let him do his thing with Affalo, Maxiell, McDyess, and Herrmann.
If we’re talking about bench players that contributed to the Pistons’ playoff demises then two stick out to me: Gibson and Horry. Daniel Gibson burned the Pistons with numerous triples in Game 6 of the 2007 ECFs. That’s the price you pay when you double LeBron. As for Horry, the Pistons let him go off for 20 some points in the 4th quarter and overtime of Game 5 of the 2005 NBA Finals, also letting him nail the go-ahead three pointer. If Gibson and Horry don’t go off, maybe the Pistons have a few more rings. Speaking of Game 5s, why can’t the Pistons ever win a Game 5? Seriously, most of them have been on the Pistons court and they’re the pivotal game in a tied series.
Anonymous:
I agree. It’s a risk to wait until 2010. What if none of the free agents want to sign with Detroit? Then the Pistons will have wasted their precious cap space. Boozer is a possibility although he’s been rumored to be in a Miami Heat uniform sooner rather than later. Bosh would be a great fit for the Pistons (or anyone for that matter). If things keep on getting bad in Toronto then Bosh might ask for a trade out of there.
Resign Iverson? For how much? How long? I don’t think he’s coming back period, but if they win the championship it’s a possibility. Even if he does (and/or Sheed), I can’t see it being for very long or very much money.
Remember that Billups and Rip played 6+ seasons together (more like 7 if you included playoffs), so there was great chemistry there. That can’t be recreated overnight. And like I said before, AI’s a shooting guard, so I don’t like the idea of starting him. A Stuckey and AI backcourt sounds promising, but its defensive liabilities are concerning. Who’s going to guard Kobe and Wade?
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